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비중 = 업비트·빗썸·코인원 24시간 거래대금(달러 환산, 빗썸은 업비트와 겹치는 코인이면 5분 체결 표본이라 5~10% 적게 잡힙니다) ÷ (원화 + 바이낸스·바이비트·OKX·게이트 USDT 마켓). 전 세계 전체가 아니라 주요 해외 4곳 대비입니다. 선행 판정은 최근 3일 업비트(없으면 빗썸) 1분 수익률과 바이낸스 1분 수익률의 시차 상관 — 국내가 먼저 움직이면 다음 1~3분 해외가 따라오는 정도에서 그 반대를 뺀 값. ±0.04 넘고 표본 1,500분 이상일 때만 판정. 국내는 구조적으로 바이낸스를 약 1분 뒤따르므로 대부분 '해외 선행'이 정상이고, '평소보다 국내 영향이 큰 코인'은 그날 중앙값 대비(상대 선행)로 봅니다. 상관이지 인과가 아닙니다."}